After the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003, many Western commentators were surprised at the ease with which Iraq's religious movements adapted to multiparty democracy. The Shi'ite groups, in particular, were quick to organize themselves into political parties, set up grassroots organizations across the country and form practical coalitions ahead of elections. Long assumed to be ideologically opposed to democracy, these groups showed they were in fact brilliantly adaptable. Their leaders, despite having little experience in kissing babies, campaigned like seasoned pros.
In contrast, Iraq's liberal parties were rank amateurs. Their leaders, despite having spent decades in exile in Western democracies (whereas most Islamist exiles were confined to places like Iran and Syria), seemed not to understand how democracy works: people like Iyad Allawi and Ahmed Chalabi had an air of entitlement, assuming that people would vote for them merely because they were modern, progressive and famous. They didn't bother to create a national party infrastructure, nor cared to campaign. Instead, they held all-day salons in the manner of medieval monarchs giving audience to the elite.
(Photos: "Mass Demonstrations in Egypt.")
Something very similar is unfolding in Egypt. Of all the political groups to have emerged since the fall of Hosni Mubarak - including the myriad youth movements, secular parties, Leftists and remnants of the old National Democratic Party - the Muslim Brotherhood seem to have the best understanding of how democracy works. The Islamist group may have taken a back seat to the liberal youth movement that brought down the dictator, but it's wasted little time preparing for the post-Mubarak era. Although the generals in charge of Egypt's transition have not yet announced a date for parliamentary elections (it's expected sometime in the fall), the Brotherhood is already campaigning vigorously, in Cairo and the countryside. The youth movement, on the other hand, seems unable to break out of protest mode.
The gap between them was exposed in the mid-March referendum on constitutional reforms, when the Brotherhood mobilized a massive "Yes" vote to ensure that any meaningful reforms would take place after the parliamentary elections. The liberals were split, unsure whether which scenario they feared more: a constitution written by a military-appointed panel before the elections, or one written by a Brotherhood-dominated parliament afterward. It was a rout: 77% voted Yes.
(Photos: Turmoil in Egypt)
The gap has not closed. Since the referendum, many liberals have sought to undermine the result by trying to force through reforms before the election. Their great champion, former UN nuclear watchdog (and Bobel laureate) Mohammed ElBaradei, is arguing that the constitution can't wait for people's elected representatives. The youth leaders agree and are threatening to return to Tahrir Square if they don't get their way. They claim the referendum doesn't matter because the Brotherhood misled Egyptians by portraying it as a vote on religion. (The Islamists deny this, and some neutral observers say both sides played fast and loose with the facts.)
This carping makes the liberals look like sore losers, and far from democratic. Critics accuse them of trying to buy time: a postponement in the election would give liberals more time to get their political house in order and hopefully catch up with the Brotherhood's organizational lead. Even Alaa al-Aswany, the novelist and strong Brotherhood critic, acknowledges that it ill behooves the liberals to attempt an end run around the referendum. "The people made a choice, and we have to respect it," he says.
The Brotherhood, meanwhile, is sitting pretty. It is offering to form a broad coalition with liberals and Leftists in the election, and promises there will be no attempt to hijack the constitutional reform process afterward. "The new constitution has to be written by all Egytians," says Essam Erian, a top Brotherhood leader. "No one group should have a louder voice than the others." This makes the Islamists look responsible and conciliatory, and is likely to play well with voters. (More on the Brotherhood's election strategy in posts to come.)
In Iraq, it took the liberals years to catch up with the religious parties in organization and campaigning skills. In the last election, Allawi finally cobbled together a coalition that won more seats than any other group, only to be outmaneuvered in the post-election horse-trading. If Egypt's liberals aren't careful, a similar fate awaits them.
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